Stock Market - How to Use Fundamental Analysis to Make Trading Decisions

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Stock Analyzing

Investors come in many shapes and forms, so to speak, but there are two basic types. First and most common is the more conservative type, who will choose a stock by viewing and researching the basic value of a company. This belief is based on the assumption that so long as a company is run well and continues turning a profit, the stock price will rise. These investors try to buy growth stocks, those that appear most likely to continue growing for a longer term.

The second but less common type of investor attempts to estimate how the market may behave based purely on the psychology of the market's people and other similar market factors. The second type of investor is more commonly called a "Quant." This investor assumes that the price of a stock will soar as buyers keep bidding back and forth (often regardless of the stock's value), much like an auction. They often take much higher risks with higher potential returns-but with much higher potential for higher losses if they fail.

Fundamentalists

To find the stock's inherent value, investors must consider many factors. When a stock's price is consistent with its value, it will have reached the target goal of an "efficient" market.
The efficient market theory states that stocks are always correctly priced since everything publicly known about the stock is reflected in its market price. This theory also implies that analyzing stocks is pointless since all information known is currently reflected in the current price. To put it simply:

• The stock market sets the prices.
• Analysts weigh known information about a company and thereby determine value.
• The price does not have to equal the value. The efficient market theory is as the name implies, a theory. If it were law, prices would instantly adapt to information as it became available. Since it is a theory instead of law, this is not the case. Stock prices move above and below company values for both rational and irrational reasons.

Fundamental Analysis endeavors to ascertain the future value of a stock by means of analyzing current and/or past financial strength of a particular company. Analysts attempt to determine if the stock price is above or below value and what that means to the future of that stock. There are a multitude of factors used for this purpose. Basic terminology that helps the investor understand the analysts determination include:

• "Value Stocks" are those that are below market value, and include the bargain stocks listed at 50 cents per dollar of value.
• "Growth Stocks" are those with earnings growth as the primary consideration.
• "Income Stocks" are investments providing a steady income source. This is primarily through dividends, but bonds are also common investment tools used to generate income.
• "Momentum Stocks" are growth companies currently coming into the market picture. Their share prices are increasing rapidly.

To make sound fundamental decisions, all of the following factors must be considered. The previous terminology will be the underlying determining factor in how each will be used, based upon investor bias. 1. As usual, the earnings of a particular company are the main deciding factor. Company earnings are the profits after taxes and expenses. The stock and bond markets are mainly driven by two powerful dynamisms: earnings and interest rates. Harsh competition often accompanies the flow of money into these markets, moving into bonds when interest rates go up and into stocks when earnings go up. More than any other factor, a company's earnings create value, although other admonitions must be considered with this idea. 2. EPS (Earnings Per Share) is defined as the amount of reported income, per share, that the company has on hand at any given time to pay dividends to common stockholders or to reinvest in itself. This indicator of a company's condition is a very powerful way to forecast the future of a stock's price. Earnings Per Share is arguably one of the most widely used fundamental ratios. 3. Fair price of a stock is also determined by the P/E (price/earnings) ratio. For example, if a particular company's stock is trading at $60 and its EPS is $6 per share, it has a P/E of 10, meaning that investors can expect a 10% cash flow return. Equation: $6/$60 = 1/10 = 1/(PE) = 0.10 = 10% Along these same lines, if it's making $3 a share, it has a multiple of 20. In this case, an investor may receive a 5% return, as long as current conditions remain the same in the future. Example: $3/$60 = 1/20 = 1/(P/E) = 0.05 = 5% Certain industries have different P/E ratios. For instance, banks have low P/E's, normally in the range of 5 to 12. High tech companies have higher P/E ratios on the other hand, generally around 15 to 30. On the other hand, in the not too distance past, triple-digit P/E ratios for internet-stocks were seen. These were stocks with no earnings but high P/E ratios, defying market efficiency theories. A low P/E is not a true indication of exact value. Price volatility, range, direction, and noteworthy news regarding the stock must be considered first. The investor must also consider why any given P/E is low. P/E is best used to compare industry-similar companies. The Beardstown Ladies suggests that any P/E lower than 5 and/or above 35 be examined closely for errors, since the market average is between 5 and 20 historically. Peter Lynch suggests a comparison of the P/E ratio with the company growth rate. Lynch considers the stock fairly priced only if they are about equal. If it is less than the growth rate, it could be a stock bargain. To put it into perspective, the basic belief is that a P/E ratio half the growth rate is very positive, and one that is twice the growth rate is very negative. Other studies suggest that a stock's P/E ration has little effect on the decision to buy or sell stock (William J. O'Neal, founder of the Investors Business Daily, in his studies of successful stock moves). He says the stock's current earnings record and annual earnings increases, however, are vital. It is necessary to mention that the value as represented by the P/E and/or Earnings per Share are useless to investors prior to stock purchase. Money is made after stock is bought, not before. Therefore, it is the future that will pay, both in dividends and growth. This means that investors need to pay as much attention to future earnings estimates as to the historical record. 4. Basic PSR (Price/Sales Ratio) is similar to P/E ratio, except that the stock price is divided by sales per share as opposed to earnings per share.
• For many analysts, the PSR is a better value indicator than the P/E. This is because earnings often fluctuate wildly, while sales tend to follow more dependable trends.
• PSR may be also be a more accurate measure of value because sales are more difficult to manipulate than earnings. The credibility of financial institutions have suffered through the Enron/Global Crossing/WorldCom, et al, debacle, and investors have learned how manipulation does go on within large financial institutions.
• The PSR by itself is not very effective. It is effectively used only in conjunction with other measures. James O'Shaughnessy, in his book What Works on Wall Street, found that, when the PSR is used with a measure of relative strength, it becomes "the King of value factors."

5. Debt Ratio shows the percentage of debt a company has as compared to shareholder equity. In other words, how much a company's operation is being financed by debt.

• Remember, under 30% is positive, over 50% is negative.
• A successful operation with ascending profitability and a well marketed product can be destroyed by the company's debt load, because the earnings are sacrificed to offset the debt.

6. ROE (Equity Returns) is found by dividing net income (after taxes) by the owner's equity.


• ROE is often considered to be the most important financial ration (for stockholders) and the best measure of a company's management abilities. ROE gives stockholders the confidence they need to know that their money is well-managed.
• ROE should always increase on a yearly basis.

7. Price/Book Value Ratio (a.k.a. Market/Book Ratio) compares the market price to the stock's book value per share. This ratio relates what the investors believe a company (stock) is worth to what that company's accountants say it is worth per recognized accounting principles. For example, a low ratio would suggest that the investors believe that the company's assets have been overvalued based on its financial statements.

While investors would like the stocks to be trading at the same point as book value, in reality, most stocks trade either at a value above book value or at a discount.

Stocks trading at 1.5 to 2 times book value are about the limit when searching for value stocks. Growth stocks justify higher ratios, because they grant the anticipation of higher earnings. The ideal would be stocks below book value, at wholesale prices, but this rarely happens. Companies with low book value are often targets of a takeover, and are normally avoided by investors (at least until the takeover is complete and the process begins anew).

Book value was more important in a time when most industrial companies had actual hard assets, such as factories, to back up their stock. Sadly, the value of this measure has waned as companies with low capital have become commercial giants (i.e. Microsoft). Videlicet, look for low book value to keep the data in perspective.

8. Beta compares the volatility of the stock to that of the market. A beta of 1 proposes that a stock price moves up and down at the same rate as the market overall. A beta of 2 means that when the market drops the stock is likely to move double that amount. A beta of 0 means it does not move at all. A negative Beta means it moves in the opposite direction of the market, spelling a loss for the investor.

9. Capitalization is the total value of all of a company's outstanding shares, and is calculated by multiplying the market price per share by the total number of outstanding shares.

10. Institutional Ownership refers to the percent of a company's outstanding shares that are owned by institutions, mutual funds, insurance companies, etc., which move in and out of positions in very large blocks. Some institutional ownership can actually provide a measure of stability and make contributions to the roll with their buying and selling, respectively. Investors consider this an important factor because they can make use of the extensive research done by these institutions before making their own portfolio decisions. The importance of institutions in market action cannot be overstated, and accounts for over 70% of the dollar volume traded daily.

Market efficiency is a marketplace goal at all times. Anyone who puts money into a stock would like to see a return on their investment. Nevertheless, as before-mentioned, human emotions will always drive the market, causing over- and undervalue of common stocks. Investors must take advantage of patterns using modern computing tools to find the stocks most undervalued as well as develop the correct response to these market patterns, such as rolling within a channel (recognizing trends) with intelligence.

Random Stock Market Behavior

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Gambling your Way to the Market
If you have the money and would like investing it in the stock market, you would do well by studying first the market. It is important for you to know the stock market behavior and the factors that would influence it. There are some who consider investing in the stock market as some sort of a gamble. That the stock market behavior is just too unpredictable and winning or losing in the stock market will depend on pure luck.

People who considers investing in the stock market as a gamble believes that the market cannot be predicted as to the course it would take at any given time. They think of the market as some sort of a rudderless boat floating by its lonesome self without any set of direction to take. You will be lucky if the tide sets the rudderless boat or stock market behavior in your direction but if not, you lose.

Indeed, because of their belief that investing in the stock market is some sort of a game of chance, there are stock market investors, who would even go to the extent of consulting their horoscope before doing their trade. Many Chinese stock market investors even have Feng Shui experts guiding them when to invest or trade in the market.

The Feng Shui Experience
A clear case of this situation wherein investors of a stock market believes that the stock market behavior is simply erratic, random and governed by luck and even by the positioning of stars and other unseen forces such as Feng Shui was demonstrated in Hong Kong when Financial Secretary Henry Tang presented Hong Kong's Budget for 2004/2005.

He made his presentation in a televised coverage. The Finance Secretary was dressed in a dark suit, white shirt and with a corresponding tie maroon red in color. While he was making his TV budget presentation, the TV screen bottom crawler which indicated real time Hang Seng Index performance, started dropping until it dropped to a low of 180.41 points.

Many Chinese stock market investors who have seen the precarious drop of the Hang Seng Index, which is Hong Kong stock market Index, blamed the entire stock market behavior to the colors of the Finance Secretary outfit during the time he made his TV budget presentation.

They pointed out that the colors of water represented by dark blue or black and metal which has white for its color and fire for red and maroon colors are simply against Feng Shui. This is what triggered the very bad behavior of the stock market when the Finance Secretary went on TV, they said.

Economist on the other hand would simply dismiss this behavior of the market as brought about by the color of the Finance Secretary's outfit due to bad Feng Shui. They reasoned that it was not Feng Shui that made the market behave badly. Rather, it was the belief of the investors in Feng Shui that made the market went down. Thus, in effect, it was human attitude which was fear that caused the market to behave badly.

To point out, they noted that while the Finance Secretary was on TV, many investors watching the proceedings were calling their brokers to sell shares rather than buy because they believe that the colors of the Secretary's outfit carries ominous and dire consequences to the economy because it contradicts Feng Shui, while all the while discussing the country's budget for the year. And because of instant communication through mobile phones, there was suddenly a deluge to sell that even while the secretary was still on TV, the Chinese belief in Feng Shui became evident with the heavy downward spiral of the stock market, all because of his color choice of tie, shirt and suit.

Market Behavior and Public Perception
This clearly shows that the market behavior is determined by the public's perception that will have anything to do with the economy. As many successful stock market traders would say, trading is not determined by gut feel but by how any news or information will affect your gut. In effect, they are saying that a market behavior will depend on the present environment and on the public's perception of the near future.

Seasoned traders debunk the idea that stock market behaves at random and there is really no basis for predicting its movements by using whatever forms of analysis. They reasoned out that just like its human conceivers, the market behavior will depend on the fears and greed of its maker in relation to material wealth and resources as affected by natural factors. History repeats itself, so does the stock market charts that continuously show similar patterns since the late 60s.

The Art of Making Money in Stock Market

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Most people know that the stock market is unpredictable. Losses in stock market investment are an inevitable part of the trading process. Therefore every stock market trader, howsoever shrewd and experienced he may be, is bound to incur a loss at one time or another.

So before you start trading in the stock market, you must be prepared to suffer losses like every other trader. This, however, does not mean that making money in stock market is more a matter of luck or chance.

This only means that you should make a thorough search, both fundamental and analytical, about the profitability of the stock before investing in it. Having done that you must be prepared to suffer loss since, as already said, the stock market always remains unpredictable.

You have to develop a mind set which should be prepared to take losses in your stride.

What is the use of developing this kind of mind set?

If you understand that losses are part of the stock trading, you will look at your losses with detachment and equanimity like a good sportsman. You will not be shocked and perturbed. You will not lose your perspective and you will be able to prepare yourself for the next game, next trade with a cool mind.

A disturbed mind cannot react properly. It is likely to misinterpret the graphs and charts of the market trends and draw wrong conclusions.

A constantly nagging fear of suffering another loss in the next trade may prevent a trader from investing which would mean that the loss incurred in the previous trade would not be recouped.

If you have a positive mind set and understand that you have to make money in an inherently mercurial market, you try to be realistic instead of perfectionist in stock trading.

A good trading day for a realistic and positive trader will not be one when he makes money. It would be the one when he has made both an extensive and intensive research in the stock he wants to trade in. He has made a thorough planning with discipline and focus and follows each step as per his planned strategy. Making money in stock market for such investors will become easy.

Experts in trading psychology believe that it is important to concentrate upon things which you can easily control. You should not try to lose your focus on attending things which you cannot control.

For example, while you cannot control the price trend, you can control your losses by using the stop loss tool effectively. You can understand the concept of support and resistance levels and use them successfully in your trading.

According to Tim Renolds, you should develop three basic strategies to stop your losses. These are price based, time based and indicator based strategies.

In order to use the price based stop loss strategy, you will have "to make a hypothesis about the trade and identify a low point in that particular stock market." Having done that, you should "set your trade entries near your points, thus making sure that losses will not be overly excessive if the hypothesis fails."

The time based stops involves making optimum use of your time. You should fix up a certain holding period to achieve your target in trading a particular stock. If you cannot achieve your target within that time frame, you should not keep that stock and sell it off.

The indicator based strategy involves understanding market indicators. As an intelligent trader you should become aware of the market indicators and utilize your experience to analyze them to your benefit. The market indicators include volume, advances, declines, new highs and lows and so on.

Experts in stock trading psychology recommend that you should set stops and "rehearse them mentally". It will help to ensure that you follow these strategies thoroughly and benefit from them.

Another important point is that you should immune yourself from the influence of mass psychology. It means that you should resist the temptation to do what the majority of stock traders are doing. You must make up your own mind whether or not you have to buy or sell a stock. You can make up your own mind only when you have done your own independent research and do not listen to the secrets and tips offered by your friends and stock market experts.